The Importance of Data

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PRESENTATION OUTLINE

THE IMPORTANCE OF DATA

CHAPTER 7
Photo by Vincent Botta

DRUNKEN FRUIT FLIES

EMILY ROSA, YOUNGEST TO PUBLISH IN JAMA

GARBAGE IN, GARBAGE OUT

Photo by Gary Chan

WHY COLLECT DATA?

THREE GENERAL REASONS OR GOALS
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1) REPRESENTATIVE OF POPULATION

A SPOONFUL OF SOUP TO TEST THE POT
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SIMPLE RANDOM SAMPLE

Photo by shioshvili

“RANDOM” IS WAY HARDER THAN IT SEEMS

Photo by Patrick Fore

MOST POPULATIONS WE’RE INTERESTED IN ARE COMPLEX

REPRESENTATIVENESS IS THE KEY TO THE COOL STATS

Photo by JD Hancock

GETTING A GOOD SAMPLE IS FREAKIN’ HARD

Photo by S. F. Pitman

Bad statistics generally aren’t a matter of messing up the math (computers!), it’s messing up the sample

Photo by Fríða mín

MINNEAPOLIS DOMESTIC VIOLENCE EXPERIMENT

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SIZE MATTERS: BIGGER IS BETTER, BUT IT WON’T SAVE A BAD SAMPLE

Photo by rawpixel

2) COMPARE GROUPS

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CONTROL GROUP & TREATMENT GROUP

NEED TO BE SIMILAR ON EVERYTHING EXCEPT THE TREATMENT
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SIMPLE IN THE PHYSICAL & BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

WE CAN’T REALLY FORCE PEOPLE, EXPERIMENT

Photo by Katya Austin

RANDOMIZATION TO THE RESCUE!

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3) “JUST BECAUSE”

CURIOSITY, OR THINK IT MAY LATER BE VALUABLE
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THE FRAMINGHAM HEART STUDY

Photo by Lhopfan

MAJOR LONGITUDINAL STUDIES

Photo by Erwan Hesry

We can’t really speak to causation in cross-sectional data.

“WE CAN’T ALWAYS HAVE THE FERRARI”

COMMON EXAMPLES OF

GARBAGE IN, GARBAGE OUT

SELECTION BIAS

THE IOWA STRAW POLL

Photo by tarobot

LITERARY DIGEST POLL, 1936

NON-RANDOM SORTING INTO GROUPS: PROSTATE CANCER

SELF-SELECTION BIAS: VOLUNTEER INTO TREATMENT

Photo by Thomas Hawk

PUBLICATION BIAS

POSITIVE FINDINGS GET PUBLISHED MORE THAN NEGATIVE

REMEMBER, UNUSUAL THINGS HAPPEN SOMETIMES

Photo by Arnold Leow

PROZAC & PAXIL

Photo by geatchy

MEDICAL JOURNALS NOW REQUIRE PRE-REGISTERING RESEARCH

Photo by Zac Ong

CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH

VACCINES FALSELY LINKED TO AUTISM

Photo by NIAID

RECALL BIAS

Photo by Wade Morgen

MEMORY: DIET & CANCER STUDY, 1993

Photo by Chris Yarzab

SURVIVORSHIP BIAS

ATTRITION: CASES DROP OUT OF THE STUDY
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EX: CONSERVATIVISM AT OLDER AGES

EX: MANAGED MUTUAL FUNDS

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HEALTHY USER BIAS

SOMETHING INHERENTLY DIFFERENT ABOUT THOSE WHO TRY
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VITAMINS & PURPLE PAJAMAS

EX: TOOTHBRUSHING & MORTALITY

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BIG POINT: DATA=CLUES

GOOD CLUES HELP, BUT THEY CAN BE HARD TO FIND

Leeda Copley

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