The Importance of Data
PRESENTATION OUTLINE
EMILY ROSA, YOUNGEST TO PUBLISH IN JAMA
1) REPRESENTATIVE OF POPULATION
“RANDOM” IS WAY HARDER THAN IT SEEMS
MOST POPULATIONS WE’RE INTERESTED IN ARE COMPLEX
REPRESENTATIVENESS IS THE KEY TO THE COOL STATS
GETTING A GOOD SAMPLE IS FREAKIN’ HARD
Bad statistics generally aren’t a matter of messing up the math (computers!), it’s messing up the sample
MINNEAPOLIS DOMESTIC VIOLENCE EXPERIMENT
SIZE MATTERS: BIGGER IS BETTER, BUT IT WON’T SAVE A BAD SAMPLE
CONTROL GROUP & TREATMENT GROUP
SIMPLE IN THE PHYSICAL & BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
WE CAN’T REALLY FORCE PEOPLE, EXPERIMENT
RANDOMIZATION TO THE RESCUE!
THE FRAMINGHAM HEART STUDY
MAJOR LONGITUDINAL STUDIES
We can’t really speak to causation in cross-sectional data.
“WE CAN’T ALWAYS HAVE THE FERRARI”
LITERARY DIGEST POLL, 1936
NON-RANDOM SORTING INTO GROUPS: PROSTATE CANCER
SELF-SELECTION BIAS: VOLUNTEER INTO TREATMENT
REMEMBER, UNUSUAL THINGS HAPPEN SOMETIMES
MEDICAL JOURNALS NOW REQUIRE PRE-REGISTERING RESEARCH
VACCINES FALSELY LINKED TO AUTISM
MEMORY: DIET & CANCER STUDY, 1993
EX: CONSERVATIVISM AT OLDER AGES
VITAMINS & PURPLE PAJAMAS
EX: TOOTHBRUSHING & MORTALITY
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