2018- Economic Outlook

Outline

• At a Glance
• World Economy
• Philippine Economy
• Financial Markets Outlook
• Risks to watch
• Summary

Key forecasts

Global Economy: Goldilocks still with us
 In the US, 3 hikes in 2018, QE unwind start. ECB and BOE signals higher rates.
Modest not steep rise in US 10-yr bond yield: near 3% peak. 

Philippine Economy: Steady as she goes
 6.8% GDP growth in 2018 on upbeat consumption and investments, plus prospect of structural reforms. 
…

World Economy

• Sychonized global upturn
• Policy normalization continues
• Commodities Rising

WORLD GROWTH (2018)

ASEAN GROWTH- 2018

PH- Economy

• With the global upturn, PH expected to grow by 6.8%.
• Passage TRAIN to boost consumption.
• More Structural reforms to be implement in 12-18months.

PH- Macro themes

• Attractive Demographics
• Continued persuit of structural reforms
• Sound Economic fundamentals

FINANCIAL MARKET- 2017

FINANCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK- 2018

Risks- External

• Geopolitics
• Fed’s pace of inflation/interest rates
• Market’s perception of inflation/interest rates

Risks- Domestic

• Infrastructure
• Pace of goverment spending
• Monetary Policy

What to monitor from here

• Geopolitics
• Various Central Bank action
• Infrastructure roll-out
• Peace and Order
• More structural reforms

Jonathan Ravelas