Basic Probability
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MORE DECKS TO EXPLORE
PRESENTATION OUTLINE
98% chance that at least 40 would pick Schlitz
86% chance that at least 45 would pick Schlitz
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The odds that no one picked Schlitz:
1 in 1,267,650,600,228,229, 401,496,703,205,376
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Probability:
The study of events and outcomes involving an element of uncertainty
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LOTS OF STUFF HAS KNOWN PROBABILITIES
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EX: NASA’S SATELLITE, 2011
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Probabilities do NOT tell us what will happen. They tell us what is more or less likely to happen.
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FEARS DO NOT ALWAYS FOLLOW THE ODDS
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Untitled Slide
- Anything less than a full match leaves room for uncertainty
- The more loci tested, the less uncertainty
- Context matters
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PROBABILITY OF TWO EVENTS BOTH HAPPENING
PRODUCT OF THEIR RESPECTIVE PROBABILITIES (MULTIPLY)
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PASSWORDS
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What are the odds of getting one of two events that are NOT mutually exclusive (a king or an ♠️)?
The sum of their individual probabilities minus the probability of getting both
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THE POINT AFTER
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THE LOTTERY
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PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS
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“EXPECTED LOSS”
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Insurance that is for-profit will not save you money in the long run, so only take insurance to protect against risks you cannot afford
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DECISION TREES
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INVESTMENTS
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WIDESPREAD SCREENING FOR RARE DISEASES
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AUTO INSURANCE: “HOT WHEELS” REPORT
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CREDIT CARD COMPANIES
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