This presentation was prepared for the FutureGov conference in Canberra on 26 November 2014. It discusses the well known quote from Ray Amara regarding the expectations about technology http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Amara
This presentation was prepared for the FutureGov conference in Canberra on 26 November 2014. It discusses the well known quote from Ray Amara regarding the expectations about technology http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Amara
"We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run"
This is Amara's Law. I never think about it without also thinking about LeoMcGarry on West Wing complaining about not having a jetpack. Indeed for older viewers, the background to this slide, Dick Tracy's 2-way wrist TV, is not quite a reality now, 50 years after it was first described.
As any CIO knows, business is far less tolerant than Leo or the fans of Dick Tracy.
A new technology itself may not be enough to disrupt the market. The way the consumer can procure the technology is a big driver and often delays adoption. The first car-like vehicle, powered by steam was built in 1769, the first powered by an internal combustion engine was made in 1807 and the first petrol vehicle in 1886. The Model T, first available 22 years later, is what really changed the transport industry - mass produced, affordable, etc. This is the disruption.
Our challenge in IT is to help business understand the difference between the shiny and the useful, while avoiding the 'box hugging' mentality identified in the context of the cloud computing discussion.
Not all barriers are permanent. Most can be moved, adjusted or reduced. A gate is a barrier, but one that provides necessary controls. The challenge in government is ensuring that the items on the critical path to adopting a useful new technology are carefully reviewed to ensure they are necessary and of the right magnitude.
Barriers, not all bad, that are experienced in government IT include:
All the barriers mentioned previously need to be negotiated in one way or another. Rarely can they all just be avoided. But there are methods that can help. Here are some ideas:
- small, incremental projects conducted in accordance with a broadly agreed direction or strategy.
- AGILE development, resulting in the delivery of project to market, sooner, but with regular upgrades - think of the iOS or Android application markets.
- standardisation - acceptance of standards that are good enough rather than striving for unique outcomes for each product
- reuse - building components that can be reused and developed rather than rebuilt each time.
Finally, professionalism. If we want to think of ourselves as IT professionals, we need to understand that the term means more than just being paid for our work. It requires ongoing education, self-motivated professional development, intellectual curiosity. These things mean that when the business reads about a new technology in the airline magazine, we are positioned to explain it in terms they understand and show how it could be used for the business and when.