Copy of Decision Science
Published on Sep 06, 2016
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MORE DECKS TO EXPLORE
PRESENTATION OUTLINE
Cognitive biases & Decision SCIENCE
- Fady M. Morcos -
A few months ago, we started talking about meta cognition. And how "Thinking about How We Think"
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how many animals did moses take into the arc?
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IN A LAKE, THERE IS A PATCH OF LILY PADS. EVERY DAY, THE PATCH DOUBLES IN SIZE. IF IT TAKES 48 DAYS FOR THE PATCH TO COVER THE ENTIRE LAKE, HOW LONG WOULD IT TAKE FOR THE PATCH TO COVER HALF OF THE LAKE?
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IF IT TAKES 5 MACHINES 5 MINUTES TO MAKE 5 toy cars, HOW LONG WOULD IT TAKE 100 MACHINES TO MAKE 100 toy cars?
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alternatives?
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LEONARDO DA VINCI PAINTED THE SISTINE CHAPEL
SYSTEM 1 FAVORS UNCRITICAL ACCEPTANCE
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THE suez CANAL
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The neuroimaging results, however, revealed that the part of the brain most associated with reasoning--the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex--was inactive. Most active were the orbitofrontal cortex, which is involved in the processing of emotions; and--once subjects had arrived at a conclusion that made them emotionally comfortable--the ventral striatum, which is related to reward and pleasure.
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HALO effect
NERVOUS
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CAN YOU ASK YOUR BRAIN TO STOP READING THE TEXT ON THE SLIDES?
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PASSIONATE
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CONFIDENT
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DEFIANT
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PLEASE STOP READING
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ANSWERING AN EASIER QUESTION
WHO SHOULD I TAKE SCI 1020 WITH? - WAS DEVALUATION THE RIGHT DECISION?
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blind to our own Observations
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blind to our own blindness
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control
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Stroop's experiment
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conflict
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conflict
between automatic reaction and intention to control
ego depletion
self-control or willpower draws upon a limited pool of mental resources
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intuition
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BGGBGB
BBBGGG
GGGGGB
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AVAILABILITY BIAS
- ATTENTION GRABBING
- DRAMATIC EVENTS
- PERSONAL OR NETWORK EXPERIENCE
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Linda is thirty-one years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-racism demonstrations.
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Which of these is more probable?
- Linda is a teacher in elementary school.
- Linda is a bank teller.
- Linda is an insurance salesperson.
- Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
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Representative bias
occurs when the similarity of objects is confused with the probability of an outcome
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is the number of Asia-pacific Nations among UN members larger or smaller than ___?
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IS THE NUMBER OF ASIA-PACIFIC NATIONS AMONG UN MEMBERS LARGER OR SMALLER THAN ___?
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What is your best guess of the number of Asia-pacific nations in the UN?
how old was gandhi when he died?
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limit of 12 cans per person
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1 for 20LE - 2 for 35LE
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Sports Illustrated
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regression towards the mean
Mona is currently a senior at AUC. She started reading fluently when she was four years old. What do you think her grade point average (GPA) is?
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Forecasting Sales
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