Decision Science
Published on Sep 06, 2016
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MORE DECKS TO EXPLORE
PRESENTATION OUTLINE
Pandemic
Which of the two programs would you choose?
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space mission design
Photo by NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center
Astrodynamics
Photo by Benjamin Voros
Management Consulting
Photo by Nik MacMillan
learning and teaching
Photo by Anne Davis 773
innovation
Photo by Riccardo Annandale
QUESTION?
WHY ARE WE NOT TACKLING HUMAN BEHAVIOR PROBLEMS THE SAME WAY WE TACKLE ROCKET SCIENCE?
Photo by Rick Tap
human behavior
- Amount of time spent studying
- Paying close attention to the matter at hand
- The intention or desire to learn
- Learning in a way that matches your learning style
- What you think about while studying
Photo by Priscilla Du Preez
Prediction
PEOPLE on my right WILL recall MORE WORDS THAN PEOPLE on my left
Photo by Priscilla Du Preez
Reasoning
No evidence they can draw conclusions based on observations, Wolfgang Kohler 1917
Photo by swh
BUT WHAT IF WE ARE NOTHING MORE THAN THE COLLECTIVE SUM OF NAIVE IRRATIONAL DECISIONS
Photo by Element5 Digital
A ball & A Racket
A BALL AND A RACKET COST 11 LE. THE RACKET COSTS 10 LE MORE THAN THE BALL.
Photo by Ding Zhou
how many animals did moses take into the arc?
Photo by blondinrikard
lily pads
In a lake, there is a patch of lily pads. Every day, the patch
doubles in size.
If it takes 48 days for the patch to cover the entire lake, how
long would it take for the patch to cover half of the lake?
Photo by Yoshikazu TAKADA
Widget machine
If it takes 5 machines 5 minutes to make 5 widgets, how long
would it take 100 machines to make 100 widgets?
Photo by arbyreed
what is 213*47?
Photo by Vlad Tchompalov
alternatives?
Photo by Nathan Dumlao
Stroop's experiment
Photo by david.nikonvscanon
conflict
between automatic reaction and intention to control
how many passes?
Photo by Sabri Tuzcu
blind to our own blindness
Photo by Ryoji Iwata
cognitive currency
Photo by Great Beyond
ego depletion
Photo by Imageation
control
Photo by Leo Reynolds
PRIMING
- CAR Accident -
Hit vs. Smash (34 vs. 41 mph)
Broken Glass (14% vs. 32%) hit vs. smash
Broken Glass (14% vs. 32%) hit vs. smash
Photo by Seattle Municipal Archives
Framing
- Life Insurance -
How much would you pay for a life insurance that pays $X in the event of death?
How much would you pay for a life insurance that pays $X in the event of death in a terrorist attack?
PROBABILITY
How much would you pay for a life insurance that pays $X in the event of death in a terrorist attack?
PROBABILITY
Photo by Momentchensammler
Pandemic
Which of the two programs would you choose?
PROGRAM A
- Group 1
- If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved.
- ----------------------------------------------------
- Group 2
- If Program A is adopted, 400 people will die.
Photo by rawpixel
PROGRAM B
- Group 1
- If Program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that 600 people will be saved and a two-thirds probability that no one will be saved.
- ------------------------------------------------------
- Group 2
- If Program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that nobody will die and a two-thirds probability that 600 people will die.
Photo by rawpixel
Sarah has two children, at least one of them is a boy
What is the probability that both children are boys?
Photo by Marion Doss
Sarah has two children. The older child is a girl.
WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY THAT BOTH CHILDREN ARE GIRLS?
Photo by a4gpa
is the number of Asia-pacific Nations among UN members larger or smaller than ___?
Photo by isriya
What is your best guess of the number of Asia-pacific nations in the UN?
how old was gandhi when he died?
Photo by giridharvc7
limit of 12 cans per person
Photo by neil conway
20LE for 1 - 35LE for 2
Photo by Coleen Rivas
JUMPING TO CONCLUSION
Photo by morebyless
LINDA
Photo by Mama Marcia
Representativeness bias
Photo by Craig Cooper
Forecasting Sales
Photo by Thomas8047
Sports Illustrated
Photo by Braden Collum
can you estimate adam's gpa?
Photo by Sam & Sophie Images
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GOAL: Improve confidence in reasoning
Advancing from what we already know to new knowledge and understanding
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