DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

A SOCIETAL EVOLUTION

2 MAIN COMPONENTS

• Birth rate (per thousand)
• Death rate (per thousand)

STAGE 1

STAGE 1

• Pre- civilization
• Hunter gatherer phase
• Nomadic groups
• Very hard life

STAGE 1

• Crude birth rate: 35 to 45
• Crude death rate: 35 to 45
• Goes up and down
• Depends on the living situation

STAGE 1

• Overall population: low
• Fertility rate: high
• High infant mortality
• Low longevity rates
• No examples today

STAGE 2

STAGE 2

• Agricultural revolution
• Stable food produce
• Dawn of civilization
• Villages to towns to cities
• Factories to mass produce

STAGE 2

• Mostly rural areas
• Increasing technologies
• Better health care
• Better shelters
• Overall, controlling environment

STAGE 2

• Crude birth rate stays high
• Stays much more even
• Crude death rate: plummets
• High longevity rates

STAGE 2

• Decreasing infant mortality
• Population total explodes
• High fertility rates
• Children are still assets
• Ex: Zambia, Vietnam, Guatemala

STAGE 3

STAGE 3

• Continuation of stage 2
• Increasing urban areas
• Working in factories
• More job specialization
• Most live in big cities

STAGE 3

• 50% or more in urban areas
• Education, hospitals, etc
• More complex societies
• Increasing medical tech.
• Increasing education

STAGE 3

• Fertility rate brought down
• Women educated=effect on fertility rates
• More career oriented
• Shrinking total family size
• Ex: Asia, Africa, Brazil, Turkey

STAGE 3

• Decreasing infant mortality
• Decreasing crude death rate
• Crude birth rate plummets to meet CDR
• Total population increasing less rapidly
• Longevity increases

STAGE 4

STAGE 4

• Nearly no farmers
• Decreased industrial work
• Mostly service careers
• 'Desk jobs'
• Significantly urban areas

STAGE 4

• New technologies
• Low CBR and CDR
• Meet each other
• Stable population growth
• Very low fertility rate

STAGE 4

• Longevity rates increasingly high
• Ex: US, UK, Europe

STAGE 5

STAGE 5

• Crude death rates stay the same
• Crude birth rate become lower
• Total population is shrinking
• Ex: Russia, Japan, Italy

OVERALL VIEW

TOTAL POPULATION

• S1: very low
• S2: increases at high rate
• S3: increases slower
• S4: steady
• S5: slowly decreasing

INCREASING:

• Urbanization
• Education
• Health care
• Technology

WHY?

• Demographic transition model shows that:
• Population changed due to many revolutions
• People learned to adapt from the natural environment
• That society became more and more urban, not rural

IMPORTANCE?

• The movement of people and why
• What the people bring
• Aware of the resources, both natural and others
• Consider what type do people are moving
• The reception that these people receive when they arrive

SO WHAT?

• Knowing and understanding
• Population can lead to a
• Better understanding of the
• World in general and the
• People that live here.