Digital Impacts on Energy
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PRESENTATION OUTLINE
DIGITAL AND ENERGY
IMPACTS AND ISSUES
Digital developments sweeping through society
Energy sector also impacted
Energy sector also impacted
Geoffrey Cann
@geoffreycann
@DigitalOilGas
DigitalOilGas.com
gcann@deloitte.ca
IMPACT OF DIGITAL ON ENERGY
- Sources
- Consumers
- Cross-cutting
- Policy advice
THE EXPONENTIALS
- Global internet traffic
- Internet users
- Internet at home
- Mobile phone penetration
- Connected IoT devices
- 90% of total data ever recorded was generated in the last 24 months
- Internet users are 3.5 billion people
- 54% have home internet
- IoT - 8.4 billion in 2017 to 20 billion by 2020
Global internet traffic 1987 was 1 terrabyte (10*12 bytes)
- 2017 1.1 zettabyte (10*21)
- 7.7 b mobile phone users
- 90% of growth in developing world
- top 6 largest companies by market cap are digital
- Internet users are 3.5 billion people
- 54% have home internet
- IoT - 8.4 billion in 2017 to 20 billion by 2020
Global internet traffic 1987 was 1 terrabyte (10*12 bytes)
- 2017 1.1 zettabyte (10*21)
- 7.7 b mobile phone users
- 90% of growth in developing world
- top 6 largest companies by market cap are digital
Photo by quapan
DIGITAL AND TRANSPORTATION
- Intelligent transportation systems
- $200b investment
- Connected, autonomous, shared, electric
- transportation is 28% of global energy demand
- 36% is road freight
- 28% passenger light duty
- market for automated driving tech is $200b by 2030
- mobility as a service
- right sizing vehicle for the job
- lower cost of freight
- impacts on health, safety, insurance
- fuel retail markets, fuel distribution systems
- rise of teleworking
- 36% is road freight
- 28% passenger light duty
- market for automated driving tech is $200b by 2030
- mobility as a service
- right sizing vehicle for the job
- lower cost of freight
- impacts on health, safety, insurance
- fuel retail markets, fuel distribution systems
- rise of teleworking
DIGITAL AND BUILDINGS
- Building demand for energy
- heat, cool, light (~60% of total)
- 33% of global energy demand, 50% of global power
- China and India growing by 6% pa
- standby power a problem
- 50% of power demand from connected devices
- platform for demand response
- reduce cost for those in energy deficit
- smart thermostats yield 30-50% energy savings
- room by room
- AI, smart learning
- schemes for rewarding consumers
- link lighting and heat together
- heat, cool, light (~60% of total)
- 33% of global energy demand, 50% of global power
- China and India growing by 6% pa
- standby power a problem
- 50% of power demand from connected devices
- platform for demand response
- reduce cost for those in energy deficit
- smart thermostats yield 30-50% energy savings
- room by room
- AI, smart learning
- schemes for rewarding consumers
- link lighting and heat together
DIGITAL AND INDUSTRY
- industry accounts for 38% of global energy demand
- inside the plant fence savings (smart sensors, 3D printing, robots, AI, analytics, digital twin)
- beyond the fence (remote controlled ops, supply chain collaboration, cloud connected workers)
- process control adoption yielded energy savings $300m on investment of $235m 1987-2015 US study
- use of robots and 3D printing to reduce scrap
- 3D printing - lower energy use, less inventory, less complexity, smaller footprint
- 2007 - slowest 3D printer $18000
- 2017 - slowest 3D printer is $400, 100 times faster
- inside the plant fence savings (smart sensors, 3D printing, robots, AI, analytics, digital twin)
- beyond the fence (remote controlled ops, supply chain collaboration, cloud connected workers)
- process control adoption yielded energy savings $300m on investment of $235m 1987-2015 US study
- use of robots and 3D printing to reduce scrap
- 3D printing - lower energy use, less inventory, less complexity, smaller footprint
- 2007 - slowest 3D printer $18000
- 2017 - slowest 3D printer is $400, 100 times faster
IMPACTS ON OIL AND GAS
- 10-20% reduction in production costs
- 520b BOE reserves growth
- Artificial intelligence
- Automation, robots
- Tight oil and gas
- Barriers aplenty
- 10-20% reduction in production cost
- no widespread sector studies completed
- focus on newer resources (tight oil, gas)
- recovery rates lower
- 5% growth in global reserves (US, Canada)
- no widespread digital solution to production
- methane monitoring a key new area
- retail and tight margins benefits from small improvements
Barriers
- timing
- age of plant
- internal focus of oil and gas
- risk aversion
- industry fragmentation
- long term demand trends
- IT shortcomings
- conservative management cultures
- no widespread sector studies completed
- focus on newer resources (tight oil, gas)
- recovery rates lower
- 5% growth in global reserves (US, Canada)
- no widespread digital solution to production
- methane monitoring a key new area
- retail and tight margins benefits from small improvements
Barriers
- timing
- age of plant
- internal focus of oil and gas
- risk aversion
- industry fragmentation
- long term demand trends
- IT shortcomings
- conservative management cultures
DIGITAL AND POWER
- Reduction in O&M costs
- Reduction in unplanned outages
- Extended asset life
- Efficiency gains
- Few barriers
- Few incentives
- O&M costs - enable predictive mice
- detailed component real time information - costly, needs digital sensors
- 5% gain
- unplanned outages cost $100b pa in US (better monitoring)
- long life infrastructure - extend by 5 years
(Wind, solar, hydro power, coal plants, network)
- defer $1.3T investment
- few direct barriers to digital - owners want lower cost, longer life assets, greater returns
- financial incentives are misaligned - digital investments not incentivised
- detailed component real time information - costly, needs digital sensors
- 5% gain
- unplanned outages cost $100b pa in US (better monitoring)
- long life infrastructure - extend by 5 years
(Wind, solar, hydro power, coal plants, network)
- defer $1.3T investment
- few direct barriers to digital - owners want lower cost, longer life assets, greater returns
- financial incentives are misaligned - digital investments not incentivised
Photo by Diz Play
TOTAL SYSTEM EFFECTS
- Supply and demand blur
- Rise of the pro-sumer
- Bi-directional power flows
- Smart appliances, homes
- Integration of renewables
- Smart EV charging
- Small scale distributed power
- dramatic change in business model
- cause is cost reductions in power (PV down 5 times, sensors down 95%, batteries down 66%)
- like impact of digital on retail, news, music
- first time in 100 years, roles can change
- inflexible demand -> demand response
- today only 1% is demand response (large customers)
- could be 20% of total, avoid $250b in investment to 2040
- centralized supply -> distributed sources
- EV - same power as Calif house
- more EVs, more savings - smart charging - roaming battery
From energy-only asset intense to service platforms
- cause is cost reductions in power (PV down 5 times, sensors down 95%, batteries down 66%)
- like impact of digital on retail, news, music
- first time in 100 years, roles can change
- inflexible demand -> demand response
- today only 1% is demand response (large customers)
- could be 20% of total, avoid $250b in investment to 2040
- centralized supply -> distributed sources
- EV - same power as Calif house
- more EVs, more savings - smart charging - roaming battery
From energy-only asset intense to service platforms
Photo by American Public Power Association
THE RISKS
- Cyber threats to energy security
- Data privacy and ownership
- Economic disruption - jobs
- more digital means more natural and cyber risks (geomagnetic storm)
- greater attack surface
- IT, SCADA, OT, IoT
- security by obscurity is fading
- span products, people, systems because of rapid spread
- focus on building resilience
- digital energy creates demand for data
- detailed profiles of energy use, when house empty
- data interoperability impedes sharing
- how to anonymize, provide for quality, make transparent, informed consent, right to be forgotten
- jobs - shortages in robot operators
- displacement in driving, building maintenance, power plant maintenance, manufacturing
- greater attack surface
- IT, SCADA, OT, IoT
- security by obscurity is fading
- span products, people, systems because of rapid spread
- focus on building resilience
- digital energy creates demand for data
- detailed profiles of energy use, when house empty
- data interoperability impedes sharing
- how to anonymize, provide for quality, make transparent, informed consent, right to be forgotten
- jobs - shortages in robot operators
- displacement in driving, building maintenance, power plant maintenance, manufacturing
Untitled Slide
What will be our future?
Embrace digital?
Government call to action:
Build expertise
Ensure appropriate access to data
Build flexibility into policies
Experiment
Focus on system benefits
Work with the neighbors
Watch energy impacts of digital on demand
Build security into designs
Level playing field
Learn from others
Embrace digital?
Government call to action:
Build expertise
Ensure appropriate access to data
Build flexibility into policies
Experiment
Focus on system benefits
Work with the neighbors
Watch energy impacts of digital on demand
Build security into designs
Level playing field
Learn from others
