India and Trade
Published on Nov 21, 2015
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India and Trade Negotiations
Photo by Joseph T. A
Most complicated negotiations ever
- Single undertaking, 190 participants
- Number and types of stakeholders
- Changing stakes, shifting positions
- Negotiating in the unknown
- No altruism
Photo by Michael Redman
Which perspective?
- Diplomat, civil servant
- Importer/Exporter
- Consumer/Employee
- Rich/poor
Photo by Stuck in Customs
Theoretical perspective
- Laissez faire, let the invisible hand operate
- Trade is good, theory of comparative advantage
- Remove barriers to trade
- Level playing field, rule based
- Everyone benefits
Photo by Joe Dunckley
The Indian perspective
Photo by Stuck in Customs
An international regime
- Skewed in favour of the strong
- Resistant to change
- UNSC Permanent Seat, Veto
- IMF, World Bank quotas
- New Development Bank
Photo by theglobalpanorama
Negotiating economics at the time of the fastest economic transition in history
Photo by Sprengben [why not get a friend]
The invisible hand has limits
Rich rationality vs Poor rationality
Shifting stakes
The operation of comparative advantage has a cost. Deep pockets help.
Photo by Bob Jagendorf
Loopholes, loopholes
Photo by nedrichards
What does India do?
Photo by Roshan Travel Photography
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Why?
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- US - Agriculture, Labour standards
- EU - Singapore issues
- Developing countries - "unfinished" Uruguay issues
- Compromise
Doha to Doha Lite
- Singapore 1996, Geneva 1998, Seattle 1999
- Doha 2001
- Cancun 2003, Hong Kong 2005
- Geneva 2009, 2011
- Bali 2013
Photo by Kaptah
No role until Doha Round
- Emerging - between developed and developing
- One of the fastest growing markets
- Quad - 5 interested parties-G20
- Doha Development Agenda
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Indian concerns in Doha Round
- DEFENSIVE
- Special and differntial treatment
- SSM Agriculture
- Food security
Indian concerns in Doha Round
- OFFENSIVE
- Subsidies
- Tariffs
- Non-tariff barriers
India's economic record
- Very rapid growth
- Sui generis model
- Transitional economy
- Integrating with world economy
- Liberal democracy
Photo by <DEEPAK GUPTA>
NEW DELHI/GENEVA, Nov 5 (Reuters) - India defied the world on Wednesday in a row over food stockpiling that has crippled attempts to reach a global trade agreement, raising doubts that backroom talks can reach a compromise before a Group of 20 summit this month.
Photo by Sukanto Debnath
The EU is deeply disappointed with India’s decision to block the adoption of the Trade Facilitation Protocol, thereby preventing the 160 WTO member countries to proceed with their ratification procedures and stalling the implementation of an agreement which could have brought tremendous benefits to the global economy and specifically to developing countries, the European Commission told The Dollar Business.
Photo by Horia Varlan
India’s hardball tactics will hurt a country struggling to shake off its protectionist reputation. Of 95 countries tracked by the World Bank in 2013, India’s exports-to-GDP ratio was 19th from bottom. Agricultural protection is high. In 2012 the European Union, rightly scorned for its own farm policies, spent the equivalent of 0.73% of GDP on agricultural support. India’s 1.15 trillion rupees ($18.8 billion) spending on food subsidies touches 1% of GDP—and has doubled since 2009. Even that is before counting subsidies to farmers for fertilisers, tractor fuel and the like.
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- 0.73% of US$16 trillion
- 1% of US$ 2 trillion
- Which is greater?
"The political considerations driving India's farm trade stance are compelling...."
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10 Agreements in Bali. India not opposed to trade facilitation as such. No problems with 8 other agreements.
Photo by Jonathan d[-_-]b
Other Indian concerns
- Currency rate distortions
- Movement of persons
- Public health exception
- IT exports
Photo by adarsh_antony
