Interdependent Complex Systems

West Midlands Fire Service

The Challenge

• Budget cuts
• Future risk identification and mitigation - need to pinpoint interventions
• Competitive commissioning market: need to prove efficacy against other services
• Statutory requirement to measure impact
• Need to direct bidders under Social Value Act towards strategic goals

First we create the target human terrain

We populate with service users geo-located eg. fire, health, unemployed, crime, deprivation ... category segmented eg gender

We calculate impact efficiency of each service provider eg.
Fire Service
NHS
Police
...

We measure value of each service
Preferably through Personal Value
In absence of data thru proxy data

Value Model

Variables to Adjust

• Impact of services
• Community Cohesion
• Community Density
• Others can be added

Community Cohesion is a measure of overlapping interests of communities aligned (or not) to the intervention

What-If Forecasting

Strategic Policies

Broad Interventions

Acupuncture Interventions

Maryam Taghiyeva

www.cceg.org.uk