DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

WHAT IS IT?

• Explains structure of pop and pop totals over time
• From poor and undeveloped to fully developed and rich
• Based on current societal patterns, traditions, and rates

VOCAB

• Birth rate-number of babies being born per 1000 people
• Death rate-number of deaths per 1000 people
• Infant mortality rate-# of babies that will die before their first b-day per 1000 babies born
• Longevity/life expectancy-average age people will live to
• Fertility rate-average number of babies born to a woman over her lifetime

VOCAB CONTD.

• Replacement level-2.1 babies per woman
• Demographic transition model-societal evolution broken down into 4 stages

STAGE 1

WHAT HAPPENS IN STAGE 1

• Happened for 1/2 million years
• Hunters and gatherers, all rural
• Low overall population
• Some good years, some bad
• Birth and death rate high and erratic (35-45)

WHAT HAPPENS IN STAGE 1 CONTD.

• Fertility rate high (10-15)
• Infant mortality rate high
• Longevity rates low
• No countries in this stage
• Not good conditions, no technology, health care, or education

STAGE 2

WHAT HAPPENS IN STAGE 2

• A lot if change in 8,000 years
• Agricultural revolution creates stable food supply
• Industrialization revolution creates factories to produce more
• Civilization increases
• Mostly rural, urban growing

WHAT HAPPENS IN STAGE 2 CONTD.

• Increasing technology advances
• Medical revolution improves sanitation
• Birth rates high, but stable
• Death rates suddenly drop
• Infant mortality rate lower

WHAT HAPPENS IN STAGE 2 CONTD.

• Fertility rates high, children still assets
• Mentally in stage 1
• Population explodes
• Under-developed
• Africa-Zambia, Southeast Asia-Vietnam, Central America-Guatemala

STAGE 3

WHAT HAPPENS IN STAGE 3

• Farming decreases, needs less people
• More industrialization
• More urban
• Better things in cities
• Society more complex, better life

WHAT HAPPENS IN STAGE 3 CONTD.

• Health care better
• More education available and accessible
• Educating women lowers fertility rates
• Birth rate declines to meet death rate
• Death rate declines at a slow, steady rate

WHAT HAPPENS IN STAGE 3 CONTD.

• Infant mortality decreases
• Cultural lag=population boom
• Fertility rate lowers majorly
• Longevity increases
• Early-Africa,Asia,middle east/late-south America,turkey,south Africa,china

STAGE 4

WHAT HAPPENS IN STAGE 4

• Hardly anyone farms, or lives rural
• Decrease in industrializing
• People work in service
• Birth and death rates level out and meet each other
• Stable population growth, high population total

WHAT HAPPENS IN STAGE 4 CONTD.

• Fertility rate low
• Longevity getting higher and higher
• Advances in technology and health
• Rich countries
• US, UK, UEA, Europe

STAGE 5

WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IN STAGE 5

• Death rate doesn't get lower
• Birth rate lowers below death rate
• Population shrinks
• Just now a possibility
• Russia, Japan, Italy

OVERALL SUMMARY

SUM UP

• Increase in urban, industry, education, health, tech, longevity
• Decrease in infant mortality and fertility rates
• Low pop at 1, boom at 2, slow growth at 3, stable and high at 4
• Helps predict future populations