THE MONTY HALL PROBLEM

LET’S MAKE A DEAL

DOOR 1. DOOR 2. DOOR 3.

Chances of winning with initial choice: 1/3

Chances of winning if switches choice: 2/3

COUNTER-INTUITIVE

Monty’s knowledge is what changes the probability.

THREE WAYS TO CONVINCE YOU

• Empirical: go play the simulation or watch lots of episodes
• By switching, you basically get the two other doors
• Think of it as 100 doors, and Monty opens 98

THE POINT