Tornado Forecasting

US Weather Bureau Founded: FEB 9, 1870

• President Ulysses S. Grant establishes a national weather service.
• The service is created under the Secretary of War.
• The bureau is to provide meteorological observations to the military.
• Observations would take place in the north, interior and coastal regions.

US Army Signal Corps SGT. John P. FInley: 1882

• Finley pioneers the first possible tornado forecast methods.
• Finley would assign more than 2000 ‘reporters’ in this task. 
• A tornado outbreak sparks Finley’s development of 15 rules.
• In 1888, Finley publishes his rules in the American Meteorological Journal.

The Tri-State Tornado: Mar 18, 1925

• The infamous Tri-State Tornado tracked for 219 miles.
• It began in Missouri and continued across Illinois into Indiana.
• 695 people were killed and 2,000 people were injured.
• Monthly Weather Review Editor observes 9 of Finley's rules.  
• Finley's rules have credibility for the first time. 

A Day That Lives in Infamy: Dec 7, 1941

• The Japanese stage a surprise attack at the U.S. naval base in Pearl Harbor.
• The U.S. enters World War II, sparking development of new technology.
• Radar technologies are used in the detection of warships and aircraft.
• Radar images obscured by rain open the possibility for use in forecasting.

Tornadoes Added to Weather Reporting: 1944

• In the 1870s, the Army Signal Corps banned reporting the term tornado.
• Fear of sparking a panic was the primary reason for the ban. 
• Reporting expanded to include tornadoes, thunderstorms, hail and high wind.

Tinker Air Force Base TorNado: Mar 20, 1948

• Maj. Ernest Fawbush and Capt. Robert Miller study prediction methods.
• Tornado causes $10 million in damages and destroys 32 military aircraft.
• Air Force mobilizes an investigative board from D.C. after the incident.
• Fawbush and Miller began their investigation to predict the next tornado.

First Tornado Forecast & Warning: Mar 25, 1948

• Fawbush and Miller analyzed the weather pattern of the storm.
• While researching, a similar weather pattern formed over the Plains.
• Fawbush and Miller issued the first tornado forecast on March 25.
• Another tornado hit, causing $6 million in damages, but claimed no lives.
• Despite some skepticism, the forecast is deemed a success.

The Tornado Project: 1950

• Radar is implemented on a larger scale, including use in forecasting.
• Radar was provided by the Weather Bureau and Air Weather Service.
• It included 134 weather stations and 34 cooperative stations.
• The data provided would pave the way for modern forecasts.

Birth of The Storm PREDICTION Center: 1952

• The success of the project spawns its adoption for civilian use.
• A unit is established at the Weather Bureau-Army-Navy Analysis Center.
• After a successful trail, it is recognized as the Severe Weather Unit.
• By 1953, the unit is renamed the Severe Local Storm Warning Center (SELS).

Palm Sunday Outbreak: April 1965

• The outbreak spreads across six states. 
• Tornadoes cause $200 million in damage and kill 271 people.
• Despite radar and satellite images, communication is slow.
• Media outlets can not provide warnings due to jammed phone lines.
• The National Severe Storms Laboratory improve methods after outbreak.

Tetsuya Theodore Fujita's F-SCALE: 1971

• F0 (Gale: 40-73 mph winds) F1 (Weak: 73-113 mph winds)
• F2 (Strong: 114-158 mph winds) F3 (Severe:159-207 mph winds)
• F4 (Devastating: 208-261 mph winds) F5 (Incredible: 262-319 mph winds)

Robert C. Miller's Rules: 1972

• Following advances with Fawbush, Miller publishes a set of forecast guidelines.
• The guidelines become the main reference for severe weather forecasting.
• Researchers share and expand upon by his work with other meteorologists.
• Miller's rules pave the way for the forecasters and researchers of the future.

Forecasting and New Technology: 1960-1990

• Computers allow for the use of numerical weather prediction models. 
• NSSFC forms the Centralized Storm Information System.
• Deployment of Doppler Radar became a vital asset in tornado forecasting.
• Real-time radar and improved satellite imagery push the field forward.
• Doppler Radar allows for the detection of precipitation, wind circulations.

Improved WarNing: May 3, 1999

• 74 tornadoes touched down across Oklahoma and Kansas.
• 30 minutes of warning lead-time was given to the public in 1999.
• 46 died and 800 were injured. 
• More than 8,000 homes were damaged, causing $1.5 billion in damage.
• Improved technology helped significantly reduce the loss of life.

Greensburg Tornado: May 4, 2007

• NWS notified the public to seek shelter 12 minutes before the storm hit.
• 39 minutes of warning lead-time was possible; 11 people died.
• The tornado was the first classified as EF-5 on the EF-Scale.
• Almost the entire city was destroyed, causing $153 million in damage.
• The Greensburg Tornado deployed the implementation of the EF-Scale.

ENHANCED Fujita Scale: 2007

• EF-0 (Light: 65-85 mph winds) EF-1 (Moderate: 85-110 mph winds)
• EF-2 (Considerable: 111-135 mph winds) EF-3 (Severe:136-165 mph winds)
• EF-4 (Devastating: 166-200 mph winds) EF-5 (Incredible: >200 mph winds)

Modern ForeCasting & The Future

• Dual Polarization Radar has been implemented to analyze precipitation.
• NSSL is implementing  Multi-function Phased Array Radar (MPAR) .
• MPAR can increase average tornado warning lead-time to 20 minutes.
• The current warning lead-time average is 13 minutes.
• New technology can provide improved knowledge of tornado development.